It’s the European Arms Industry, Stupid

Paraphrasing Mark Twain’s famous quip, the ever-louder rumours about the death of Pax Americana are most likely exaggerated.

Not that there is nothing to worry about. With the Republican party in an intellectual decline into isolationism, political dysfunction across the board and the prospect of Donald Trump’s vengeful return to the presidency next year are putting fear into the hearts and minds of many analysts and leaders of the Western democratic world.

In the end, the world, and especially would-be challengers to the US-led world order, often underestimate America’s military and democratic resilience. We have seen that in the 2020 presidential election and in the voter rejection of the radicalised Republican party, which deprived them of an expected landslide in mid-term elections last year. As the US economy is powering ahead, the stock market surges, inflation declines and consumer confidence returns, Joe Biden’s re-election chances are probably better than current opinion polls would suggest. A week is a long time in politics, as former British Prime Minister Harold Wilson famously remarked, and we still have nearly 50 weeks to go before America votes.